CML- Chapter 12: Probability

Probability, like statistics, plays an ever increasing role in our technological society. More and more of our decisions are based on available data and the likelihood of different outcomes. In the real world, most everything is uncertain, and probability is an important tool to help make decisions about uncertain events. To illustrate the importance of probability in everyday adult life, consider a medical study (Schwartz, Woloshin, Black, & Welch, 1997) which found that the ability of a woman to judge data on the effectiveness of mammograms to detect breast cancer was related to her mathematical understanding. The decision to have or not have an important medical test may be based on one’s understanding of probability and statistics.